After the dreadful toll the pandemic took this spring, Italy has gradually managed to limit the spread of the virus. Recently, the country received wide acclaim for its approach. But the peninsula is not off the hook. Large regional differences exist. Seroprevalence data have been misinterpreted by the media. Herd immunity might have been acquired in an area of 42,000 people, 0.07% of Italy’s population.
When on September 25, while the virus was about to claim its one millionth victim, the WHO stated that it was “not impossible’’ the global death toll could reach 2 million people by mid-2021, that sounded unusually daring. But was it really? We compared a few early and recent predictions.